1/12: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


Payroll employment dips 140,000 in December, first decline since April

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent. This was the first decline since April, and down substantially from November’s gain of 336,000, leaving us 9.8 million jobs down from pre-pandemic levels.



Employment Trends Index flat in December, down 9.2 percent year-on-year

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) was virtually unchanged in December, after seven consecutive monthly increases that started in May. The index now stands at 99.01, down from 99.05 (an upward revision) in November. The index is currently down 9.2 percent from a year ago.



Active home listings down 32 percent year-on-year to survey low, prices up 13 percent

During the 4-week period ending January 3, the median home sale price increased 13% year over year to $319,000, while pending home sales were up 38% year over year. New listings of homes for sale were up 7% from a year earlier—the smallest increase since July.  Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 32% from 2020 to a new all-time low.



December commercial property mortgage delinquency rates rise for second month

Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial and multifamily properties increased for the second month in a row in December. 6.0% of outstanding loan balances were not current during the month, with the highest rates noted for lodging (22.5%) and retail (11.9%) and lower rates for industrial (4.2%), office (2.7%) and multi-family (1.7%).