10/15: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Consumer sentiment rebounds to three-month high in early October survey

Consumer sentiment rebounded in early October to a three-month high of 96.0 as consumers anticipated larger income gains and lower inflation during the year ahead. Still, a slower pace of overall economic growth is still anticipated, including some modest increases in the national unemployment rate during the year ahead.



Federal Reserve meeting minutes shows slower but positive growth for rest of 2019 and 2020

The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the September FOMC meeting was little changed in the near term; real GDP growth was still forecast to be slower in the second half of the year than in the first half, mostly attributable to continued soft business investment and a slower increase in government spending. Real GDP was forecast to expand at a rate a little above the staff’s estimate of potential output growth in 2019 and 2020 and then slow to a pace slightly below potential output growth in 2021 and 2022.



September FNMA Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell 2.3 points to 91.5

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index decreased 2.3 points in September to 91.5, retreating from a survey high in August. Three of the six HPSI components decreased month over month, including an 8-percentage point drop in the net “Confidence About Not Losing Job” component and 7-percentage point drop in the net “Home Prices Will Go Up” component. These were partially offset by increases in the “Good Time to Buy” and “Good Time to Sell” components, at 3 and 4 percentage points on net, respectively.