12/28: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

December consumer confidence retreats to lowest level in five months

Consumer Confidence decreased in December to 128.1, or the lowest level in five months.  Expectations regarding job prospects and business conditions weakened, but still suggest that the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace in the short-term. Back-to-back declines in expectations also indicate that the pace of economic growth will begin moderating in the first half of 2019.



November inflation gauge PCE price index up 1.8 percent year-on-year

The Fed-preferred inflation tracker PCE price index increased 0.1 percent in November and 1.8 percent year-on-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1 percent in November and 1.9 percent year-on-year.



Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index shows rebound in growth during November

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.22 in November from a neutral reading in October.  The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.12 in November from +0.23 in October.