6/16: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Consumer sentiment rebounds again in early June, but uncertainty remains

Consumer sentiment posted its second monthly gain in early June, rising 9.1 percent to 78.9, paced by gains in the outlook for personal finances and more favorable prospects for the national economy due to the reopening of the economy. Despite the expected economic gains, few consumers anticipate the reestablishment of favorable economic conditions anytime soon. Bad times financially in the economy as a whole during the year ahead were still expected by two-thirds of all consumers, and a renewed downturn was anticipated by nearly half over the longer term.



Federal Reserve report reveals sharp jump in debt during 1Q 2020

Total domestic nonfinancial debt rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.7 percent in the first three months of the year to $55.9 trillion. That’s the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 1986. Household debt rose 3.9 percent and business debt jumped 18.8 percent, the largest increase since the records began in 1946. Federal debt rose 14.4 percent.



FannieMae revises economic forecast through 2021 in June report

The National Bureau of Economic Research determined in early June that the expansion that began in June 2009 and lasted over a decade came to an end in March.  Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was revised slightly lower to a decline of 5.0 percent annualized, and our forecast for second quarter GDP was little changed at -37.0 percent versus the -36.6 percent predicted last month. We revised downward our full-year growth forecast for 2020 by only one-tenth to -5.4 percent, while the 2021 growth expectation edged up only one-tenth to 5.3 percent.