6/25: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

May new home sales rebound 16.6 percent from April and 12.7 percent year-on-year

May new home sales rebounded 16.6 percent from April and 12.7 percent year-on-year to an annual rate of 676,000.  Months of supply fell to just 5.6 months, versus 6.7 months in both April 2020 and in May 2019.



U.S. Composite Output Index rebounds sharply to 46.8 in June

The IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 46.8 in June, up from 37.0 in May, indicating that the rate of contraction slowed further from April’s record low. The decrease was the softest since February, before the pandemic escalated.



Purchase loan apps dip 3 percent from previous week, but still up 18 percent year-on-year

The Market Composite Index decreased 8.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans falling 3 percent (but up 18 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity falling 12 percent (but up 76 percent year-on-year). The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances remained unchanged at 3.30 percent.



Mortgages in forbearance dip to 8.48 percent, first decline since March

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased – for the first time since the survey’s inception in March – from 8.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 8.48% as of June 14, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 4.2 million homeowners are now in forbearance plans – down from almost 4.3 million homeowners the prior week.



FHFA House Price Index up 0.2 percent in April and 5.5 percent year-on-year

U.S. house prices rose in April, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 5.5 percent from April 2019 to April 2020. The previously reported 0.1 percent increase for March 2020 remains unchanged.