6/9: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Employment staged surprise rebound of 2.5 million jobs in May
Total nonfarm payroll employment stated a surprise rebound of 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent.  Jobs rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply.

Consumer credit use fell 19.5 percent in April, revolving credit plummets 65 percent
In April, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19.5 percent. Revolving credit (such as credit cards) decreased at a annual rate of 65 percent, while nonrevolving credit (such as student loans and car loans) decreased at an annual rate of 4 percent.

Home Purchase Sentiment Index rebounds 4.5 points in May, down 24.5 points year-on-year
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) increased 4.5 points in May to 67.5, building slightly after nearing its all-time survey low in April. Four of the six HPSI components increased month over month, with consumers reporting a somewhat more optimistic view of homebuying conditions and, to a lesser extent, home-selling conditions. Moreover, fewer consumers reported expectations that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months. Year over year, the HPSI is down 24.5 points.

Employment Trends Index rises nearly 9 percent in May, down 57.9 percent year-on-year
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in May, following sharp declines in March and April. The index now stands at 46.28, up from 42.53 (a downward revision) in April. However, the index is down 57.9 percent from a year ago. Just to put things in perspective, the job gains in May recouped just 11 percent of the jobs lost in March and April. Just how much consumers will increase their spending – and how many new workers employers are willing to hire during such uncertain times – remains to be seen.