MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
Initial unemployment claims rebound 109,000, but continuing claims dip 1.1 million
In the week ending July 18, initial unemployment claims were 1.4 million, an increase of 109,000 from the previous week’s revised level. Continuing claims during the week ending July 11 were 16.2 million, a decrease of 1.1 million from the previous week’s revised level.
June Leading Economic Index rose another 2.0 percent to 102.0, but resurging Covid-19 cases a concern
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 2.0 percent in June to 102.0 (2016=100), following a 3.2 percent increase in May and a 6.3 percent decrease in April. The June increase in the LEI reflects improvements brought about by the incremental reopening of the economy, with labor market conditions and stock prices in particular contributing positively. However, with a resurgence of new COVID-19 cases across much of the nation, the LEI suggests that the US economy will remain in recession territory in the near term.
Permanent closures rising for restaurants and bars
The restaurant industry now reflects the highest total business closures, recently surpassing retail. Of the all closed restaurants in July, 15,770 have permanently closed (60 percent), accounting for 2,956 more permanent closures, a 23 percent increase since June 15. Meanwhile, bars and nightlife, an industry 6X smaller than restaurants, have endured an especially high closure rate, with 5,454 total business closures, 2,429 (44 percent) of which are permanent closures. Source: Yelp
Share of home buyers looking for another metro area rose to record 27.4 percent in 2Q 2020
A record 27.4 percent of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro area in the second quarter of 2020. That’s up from 25.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019 and 26.0 percent in the first quarter of this year. Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Austin and Atlanta had the biggest net inflows of Redfin.com users in the second quarter.