7/10: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Jobs grew by 213,000 in June, unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.0 percent

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent as more job seekers came off of the sidelines.  Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs.

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June FOMC meeting minutes:  Concern about trade tensions, flattening yield curve

U.S. central bankers discussed whether recession lurked around the corner, and expressed concerns global trade tensions could hit an economy that by most measures looked strong.   In addition, gradual rate hikes could take fed funds rate above neutral level some time next year.

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U.S. trade deficit declined 6.5 percent in May but still up 7.9 percent year-to-date

The goods and services deficit was $43.1 billion in May, down $3.0 billion from $46.1 billion in April, revised.  Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $17.9 billion, or 7.9 percent, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $84.5 billion or 8.8 percent. Imports increased $102.4 billion or 8.6 percent.

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Gallup:  Percent of Americans recognizing robust job market still near record high

Americans continue to recognize a robust U.S. job market, with 65% saying that it is a good time to find a “quality job,” similar to 67% in May. These are the highest readings in Gallup’s 17-year history of tracking this measure of Americans’ views of the employment situation.

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