Homebuilders Are Primed for an Even Better 2024
In 2023, homebuilders thrived with minimal competition from existing homeowners, leading new construction to represent 30% of housing inventory—double the usual rate. Key players, like Howard Hughes’ CEO David O’Reilly, foresee a “golden age of new home construction” continuing into 2024, while existing home-sales market improvements remain modest. Focus now shifts to the 2024 new construction forecast.
According to HousingWire, economists believe that 2024 will be a slightly better year than 2023 for homebuilders, but that some headwinds will persist, especially for non-publicly traded builders, who lack the economies of scale and access to capital markets that their larger cohorts possess.
At around 30% now, the homebuilding industry is likely near the peak level of new-home sales as a share of the entire housing market, according to industry experts who spoke with HousingWire in August.
In terms of housing starts, a key measure of coming inventory, National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts 1.04 million new single-family construction units in 2024. Ali Wolf, Zonda’s chief economist, predicts 930,000 new single-family construction units next year, while BTIG’s managing director and homebuilding analyst Carl Reichardt expects 980,000 new single-family units. For new home sales, BTIG forecasts 705,000 sales, while Zonda expects new home sales to remain flat year over year.
