‘Higher-for-Longer’ Cools House Price Appreciation, According to First American
Expect year-over-year price appreciation to follow this cooling trend in the months to come, says First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming
SANTA ANA, Calif., May 21, 2024 – First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its April 2024 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.
April[1] National House Price Index
| First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI | |
| Metric | Change in HPI |
| March-April 2024 (month over month) | +0.5 percent |
| April 2023-April 2024 (year over year) | +6.1 percent |
Highlights
- House prices nationally are now 53 percent higher compared to pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).
- House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for February 2024 to March 2024 was revised up 0.1 percentage points, from 0.9 percent to 1.0 percent.
Chief Economist Analysis:
“After years of historically low levels of homes for sale, the pace of existing-home listings has modestly increased, bringing much-needed supply to the housing market. However, just as inventory levels have increased, affordability has weakened as mortgage rates have drifted higher in response to the Fed’s decision to keep the federal funds rate ‘higher for longer,’ reducing demand,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “More supply amid a pullback in demand means price appreciation is cooling. The month-over-month growth rate peaked in February at 1.3 percent, but has since cooled significantly. This supply-demand dynamic is likely to persist, so expect year-over-year price appreciation to follow this cooling trend in the months to come.”
After years of historically low levels of homes for sale, the pace of existing-home listings has modestly increased, bringing much-needed supply to the housing market. However, just as inventory levels have increased, affordability has weakened as mortgage rates have drifted higher in response to the Fed’s decision to keep the federal funds rate ‘higher for longer,’ reducing demand. More supply amid a pullback in demand means price appreciation is cooling. The month-over-month growth rate peaked in February at 1.3 percent, but has since cooled significantly. This supply-demand dynamic is likely to persist, so expect year-over-year price appreciation to follow this cooling trend in the months to come.” – Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American Financial Corporation
April 2024 Local Market Price Tier Highlights
The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.
“Nationally, price appreciation for starter homes continues to outperform other price tiers. Given starter homes are the least supplied and the most demanded segment of the market, it’s no surprise that, even in a ‘higher-for-longer’ rate environment, there are markets with double-digit annualized price appreciation,” said Fleming. “Starter-tier prices are increasing year over year by more than 10 percent in St. Louis, Miami and Pittsburgh.”
April 2024 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights
| Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier HPI | |||
| CBSA | Change in Starter Tier HPI | Change in Mid-Tier HPI | Change in Luxury Tier HPI |
| Pittsburgh | +12.1 percent | +6.1 percent | +4.1 percent |
| Miami | +11.6 percent | +9.7 percent | +8.9 percent |
| St. Louis | +10.8 percent | +4.1 percent | +3.5 percent |
| New York | +9.9 percent | +7.4 percent | +1.1 percent |
| Warren, Mich. | +9.6 percent | +5.6 percent | +7.9 percent |
Additional April 2024 First American Data & Analytics HPI Highlights
| Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI | |
| CBSA | Change in HPI |
| Anaheim, Calif. | +10.2 percent |
| Miami | +9.5 percent |
| San Diego | +8.0 percent |
| Warren, Mich. | +7.6 percent |
| Pittsburgh | +7.6 percent |
| There were no CBSAs with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI | |
HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.
Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.
Next Release
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of June 17, 2024.
First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology
The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.
The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures prices changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2024 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
About First American Data & Analytics
First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree®, FraudGuard®, RegsData®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 130 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $6.0 billion in 2023, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2024, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work® and Fortune Magazine for the ninth consecutive year. The company was named one of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company in 2023. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.
