House Prices Reach a New Peak (Again) in September

10/16/2023 angelica@builder.media

According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

—Prices surge nationally as sellers sit on the sidelines and buyers chase what few homes are available for sale—

SANTA ANA, Calif. Oct. 16, 2023 – First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its September 2023 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

September 2023 House Price Index Highlights
The First American Data & Analytics’ non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) House Price Index (HPI) showed that nationally in September[1] 2023:

Between August 2023 and September 2023 house prices increased 0.7 percent.
House prices increased 6.3 percent between September 2022 and September 2023.
House prices reached a new peak for the sixth month in a row in September 2023.
House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for July 2023 to August 2023 was revised down 0.2 percent, from 0.7 percent to 0.5 percent.

“Rising mortgage rates continue to depress housing supply and suppress affordability, chilling the housing market. Preliminary September house price data suggests that the lack of supply is constraining the market more than reduced demand due to record-low affordability,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Nationally, house prices continue to set new records as potential sellers sit on the sidelines, limiting supply, while buyers chase what few homes are available for sale.”

September 2023 House Price State[2] Highlights

The five most populous states experienced the following year-over-year growth in the HPI: Pennsylvania (+7.8 percent), New York (+4.4 percent), Florida (+3.5 percent), Texas (+3.5 percent), and California (+3.2 percent).
There were two states with a year-over-year decrease in the HPI: South Dakota (-11.2 percent) and Nevada (-0.7 percent).
Full 50-state HPI data is available here.

September 2023 House Price Local Market Highlights

Among the 30 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American Data & Analytics, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in the HPI are: Miami (+8.8 percent), St. Louis (+8.2 percent), Anaheim, Calif. (+7.4 percent), San Diego (+7.1 percent), and Baltimore (+7.0 percent).
Among the 30 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American Data & Analytics, there were two markets with a year-over-year decrease in the HPI: Austin, Texas (-3.8 percent) and Las Vegas (-0.9 percent).
Data for the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.

September 2023 Local Market Price Tier Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

“The fact that the starter home price tier continues to outperform the middle and luxury price tiers in many markets suggests that first-time home buyer demand remains resilient despite significantly lower affordability,” said Fleming. “As of 2022, more than half of all millennial households were homeowners, but many more are aging into their 30s, the prime home-buying age, and seeking to buy instead of rent. While less affordable than a year ago, the pace of starter tier price growth in markets like Miami, Pittsburgh and St. Louis suggests homeownership demand among millennials is far from dead.”

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of November 13, 2023.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures prices changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2023 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^®, FraudGuard^®, RegsData^®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI^®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 130 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.6 billion in 2022, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2023, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the eighth consecutive year and was named one of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.