MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

ADP  Job losses fall to 2.76 million in May, far less than expected
Private sector employment decreased by 2.76 million jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®.  The report utilizes data through the 12th of the month.  This compares to a job loss of 19.56 million in April and a gain of 89,000 jobs in May 2019.  Since March 2020, ADP has tracked a total of 22.62 million jobs lost.  We’ll get a more comprehensive read on the job market on Friday, when the BLS releases their update.

Click to access ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-May2020-Final-Press-Release.pdf

Purchase loan applications rise five percent, rates slip another five basis points
The Market Composite Index decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans up 5 percent (and also rising 18 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity falling 7 percent (but up 137 percent year-on-year).  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.37 percent from 3.42 percent.

May service sector index up 3.6 points to 45.4 as companies look to re-open
The NMI® registered 45.4 percent in May, 3.6 percentage points higher than the April reading of 41.8 percent. This reading represents contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month, following a 122-month period of expansion.  Respondents remain concerned about the ongoing impact of the coronavirus. Additionally, many of the respondents’ respective companies are hoping and/or planning for a resumption of business.

Factory orders fell another 13.0 percent in April
New orders for manufactured goods in April, down three of the last four months, 13.0 percent following a decline of 11.0 percent in March.  Shipments, down four consecutive months, fell 13.5 percent after falling 5.5 percent in March. Inventories, down four consecutive months, fell 0.4 percent following a 1.1 percent March decrease.

Click to access s-i-o.pdf

70 percent of Americans think the economy is still contracting
Gallup:  As states begin to weigh the implications of reopening businesses in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, 71% of Americans say the country is in an economic depression or recession, a figure that has remained at or above 70% since mid-April.  The percentage saying U.S. is in depression is 30%, up 10 points since late March.