After factoring in the data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau, my estimate for growth in total construction spending in the U.S. in 2016 is a little over 4 percent when compared with the total from 2015. The data for 2016 will be updated and revised a few more times in the coming weeks, so this estimated pace of growth may go up or down a bit, but not by much. This follows a jump of 10 percent in total construction spending in 2015. A deceleration in the annual growth rate of this magnitude is often an indicator of a continued deceleration, or even a negative growth rate in the near-term. But this time I expect the growth rate in the spending total to at least hold steady, or even accelerate moderately. My forecast for 2017 calls for a rise of 5 percent. This is based on expectations of continued growth in the overall U.S. economy of between 2 and 2.5 percent. Be aware that at the present time, this forecast does not include any of the pro-growth initiatives being advanced by the Trump administration.
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