Expect steady growth for US construction

After factoring in the data just released by the U.S. Census Bureau, my estimate for growth in total construction spending in the U.S. in 2016 is a little over 4 percent when compared with the total from 2015. The data for 2016 will be updated and revised a few more times in the coming weeks, so this estimated pace of growth may go up or down a bit, but not by much. This follows a jump of 10 percent in total construction spending in 2015. A deceleration in the annual growth rate of this magnitude is often an indicator of a continued deceleration, or even a negative growth rate in the near-term. But this time I expect the growth rate in the spending total to at least hold steady, or even accelerate moderately. My forecast for 2017 calls for a rise of 5 percent. This is based on expectations of continued growth in the overall U.S. economy of between 2 and 2.5 percent. Be aware that at the present time, this forecast does not include any of the pro-growth initiatives being advanced by the Trump administration.


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