As the economy begins to re-open, many are wondering when the housing market will get back on track. In early April, HousingWire columnist Logan Mohtashami gave his five indicators that will show signals of a bounce back. These indicators were a flattened curve, the end of stay-at-home orders, 10-year yield goes above 1%, a decline in credit stress and jobless claims, and data from the hardest hit businesses starting to trend upwards.
Mohtashami recently gave an update on these indicators as to how we’re doing. For the first factor, Mohtashami says we are close to flattening the curve, however, we must still take precaution and observe CDC recommendations. We’re not out of the woods just yet. Second, the end of stay-at-home orders have been easing up in different parts of the country. We’re still in the process of completely coming back, but it’s progress nonetheless. For the 10-year yield getting above 1%, we’re not there yet. Since start of the recession, we’ve seen the 10-year above .62%, which is a good sign. We’re 1 for 2 when it comes to credit stress and jobless claims, as over 38.6 million Americans filed for unemployment in a short period of time. Lastly, we are indeed seeing data from businesses like dining, lodging, and travel trending upward. For the housing market, purchase applications have been mostly negative, showing percentage declines each year. However, the most recent data indicated a 1.5% decline, and Mohtashami expects the next report to register a positive rate for the first time this year, a positive sign for the market.