Market Research

Analysis and trends impacting construction, housing and development markets.

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  • The latest Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Home prices up 1.9%

    The latest Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Home prices up 1.9%

    The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported that national U.S. home prices increased by 1.9% year-over-year in July 2026, up from 1.6% in June.

    However, monthly price momentum remained subdued, with national prices edging up just 0.1% from June.

    Regionally, Midwestern and Northeastern markets remained strong, with cities such as Chicago and New York posting gains of 6.9% and 5.8%. Southern and Western cities like Seattle and Las Vegas declined.

    Homebuilders that can offer incentives such as mortgage-rate buydowns or closing-cost credits hold an advantage over traditional home sellers in the current market.

    “July’s data indicates that price growth is gaining momentum, albeit unevenly,” said Thomas Malone, principal economist at Cotality. “National appreciation reached 1.9%, outperforming June in most major metros. While prices rose just 0.1% over the month, seller concessions are opening up opportunities for buyers. This may be short-lived, however, with higher mortgage rates continuing to create a moving target for buyers, extending the uphill battle into fall.”

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  • Consumer confidence softens in September

    Consumer confidence softens in September

    Consumer confidence decreased in September 2026, according to the Consumer Confidence Index. The index is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation, consisting of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. This index fell from 89.4 to 81.9 in September, the lowest level since April 2014.

    The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. Those planning to buy a home rose slightly to 5.4% in September. Of the 5.4%, the shares planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home decreased to 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively. The remaining 2.6% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.

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  • Market share of 5,000-square-feet homes inches higher

    Market share of 5,000-square-feet homes inches higher

    The market share of homes 5,000 square feet or more accounted for 2.9% of all new home starts in 2025. According to annual data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), both the number and market share of homes with 5,000 square feet or more increased, from 24,000 homes in 2024 to 27,000 homes in 2025.

    In 2015, the 5,000-square-foot share reached a record high of 3.9%. Since then, it has fluctuated between 2.3% and 3.1%.

    Among homes of 5,000 square feet or more built in 2025, 86% have a porch, 73% have a finished basement, 73% have four or more bathrooms, 68% have a patio, 66% have a three-or-more-car garage, 57% have five or more bedrooms and 51% belong to a community association.

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  • Prime land prices rise, outlying land readjusts

    Prime land prices rise, outlying land readjusts

    Well-located land is in high demand, as seen in research from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC). The company’s 2Q26 Residential Land Survey of the top land brokers nationwide reported the following: Demand remains lower than it was a few years ago. In 2Q24, 76% of brokers rated land demand as Hot or On Fire, but by 2Q26, that number decreased to 33%. However, finished lot prices continue to rise in high-quality A-B locations, up +5% year over year (YOY), while prices fell -2% YOY in farther-out C-D locations.

    Higher-quality land is in higher demand, but there are still factors builders and developers should keep an eye on. Developers are encouraged to look out for easing growth. Meanwhile, builders may be able to push for better terms in negotiations with developers in some markets, particularly in oversupplied C-D areas.

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  • Mortgage rates hold steady

    Mortgage rates hold steady

    Results from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey revealed that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.66% on Aug. 27, 2026. This is the second time in August that mortgage rates have averaged 6.66%. Mortgage rates remain relatively unchanged throughout the month, holding steady.

    “Mortgage rates changed little this week, averaging 6.66%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The economy remains resilient, demonstrated by steady consumer spending and rising household incomes. More homes coming on the market and slower price growth in many areas are giving buyers better options and helping create a more balanced housing market.”

    The current FRM is slightly up from last week’s average of 6.65%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.56%. The 15-year FRM averaged 5.98%, up from last week when it averaged 5.95%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.69%.

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  • Pace of new home sales softens

    Pace of new home sales softens

    According to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, newly built single-family home sales declined 10.5% in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 607,000, following an upward estimate of new home sales in June. New home sales were 6.3% lower than a year earlier, according to July data.

    A survey from the National Association of Home Builders shows that a majority of builders continue to offer incentives, including mortgage rate buy-downs, to accelerate the pace of new home sales. There is still hope in the industry as builders continue to outperform the broader market.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.67%

    Mortgage rates average 6.67%

    According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Survey (PMS) released on Aug. 13, 2026, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.67%, a slight decrease from the previous week’s average of 6.69%.

    “Mortgage rates remained relatively stable this week at 6.67%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Housing affordability has improved from a year ago and recent increases in purchase and refinance applications suggest that borrowers continue to respond to even modest changes in mortgage rates.”

    A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.58%.

    The 15-year FRM averaged 5.96%, down from the previous week when it averaged 6.01%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.71%.

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  • The importance of curb appeal in home purchases

    The importance of curb appeal in home purchases

    New data from John Burns Research and Consulting found that 34% of homeowners said that curb appeal played a significant role in home purchases. According to the New Homes Trends Institute, 15% said that lack of curb appeal was a deal-breaker.

    Most potential buyers will not make it past the front yard. From the 1,240 U.S. homeowners who were surveyed in June 2026, buyers said they expect quality landscaping from builders. The report emphasized that most buyers want a lush backyard just as much as they want a beautiful home.

    John Burns Research and Consulting’s monthly survey insights reports provide the latest findings on consumer behavior.

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  • Builder confidence edges higher in August

    Builder confidence edges higher in August

    According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released on Aug. 17, 2026, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up one point to 35 in August.

    “While builder sentiment edged higher in August, builders continue to contend with high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. “However, the Midwest remains a bright spot for the home building industry, with new home sales up in that region more than 2% so far in 2026.”

    “Custom home builders continue to report stronger market conditions than spec builders, reflecting better conditions at the higher end of the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Smaller, less dense markets are also outperforming larger metropolitan areas, and smaller builders report relatively stronger conditions than larger builders.”

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  • Builder confidence edges higher in August

    Builder confidence edges higher in August

    According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released on Aug. 17, 2026, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up one point to 35 in August.

    “While builder sentiment edged higher in August, builders continue to contend with high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. “However, the Midwest remains a bright spot for the home building industry, with new home sales up in that region more than 2% so far in 2026.”

    “Custom home builders continue to report stronger market conditions than spec builders, reflecting better conditions at the higher end of the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Smaller, less dense markets are also outperforming larger metropolitan areas, and smaller builders report relatively stronger conditions than larger builders.”

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  • July building permits 5% above June estimate

    July building permits 5% above June estimate

    The United States Census Bureau released the Monthly New Residential Construction for July 2026. Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,443,000, 5% above the revised June rate of 1,374,000 and 3.1% above the July 2025 rate of 1,400,000.

    Privately owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,239,000, 12.4% below the revised June estimate of 1,415,000 and 13.5% below the July 2025 rate of 1,432,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 808,000.

    Privately owned housing completions were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,212,000, 9.1 percent% below the revised June estimate of 1,333,000 and 16.8% below the July 2025 rate of 1,456,000.

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  • ‘Housing market is no longer moving in one direction’ says Cotality Chief Economist

    ‘Housing market is no longer moving in one direction’ says Cotality Chief Economist

    On Aug. 10, 2026, Cotality released its August 2026 U.S. home insights price report. According to the report, the Midwest and Northeast markets are still seeing firm price growth. Illinois is at a 6.4% year-over-year increase (YoY), followed by Connecticut at 6%, Nebraska at 5.8% and Indiana, also at 5.8%. National home price growth remains modest but shows signs of acceleration, edging up 0.3% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year in June 2026.

    “As long as mortgage rates stay consistently high, factors such as local job and income growth, migration patterns and specific industrial investments will influence the real estate market,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality.

    Cotality also found that major industrial and tech investments are driving sharp local growth spikes-highlighted by Abilene, Texas, at +9.5% YoY, where AI data centers insulated the metro from broader statewide housing declines.

    “Cities like Abilene demonstrate that even in a cooling state like Texas, targeted capital projects can generate localized demand shocks that completely contradict regional trends,” said Hepp.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.69%

    Mortgage rates average 6.69%

    As of Aug. 6, 2026, mortgage rates averaged 6.69%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Survey (PMS). These results are up from last week’s average of 6.66%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.63%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While mortgage rates continue to influence affordability, the housing market is showing signs of adjustment, with listing prices modestly below year-ago levels and for-sale inventory improving from the limited supply seen in recent years.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 6.01%, down from the previous week’s 6.04%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.75%.

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  • Residential construction spending averages $877.1 billion in June

    Residential construction spending averages $877.1 billion in June

    On Aug. 3, 2026, the United States Census Bureau released its Monthly Construction Spending in June 2026 report. According to the report, residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $877.1 billion in June, 0.3% (±1.3%)* below the revised May estimate of $879.9 billion.

    Total construction spending during June 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,166.5 billion, 0.1% (±0.8%)* below the revised May estimate of $2,168.5 billion. The June figure is 3.2% below the June 2025 estimate of $2,237.7 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,046.9 billion, 3.5% below the $1,084.5 billion for the same period in 2025.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.66%

    Mortgage rates average 6.66%

    On July 30, 2026, Freddie Mac released the latest results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.66%. This was up from the week prior’s average of 6.58%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The housing market continues to benefit from more available inventory, providing prospective homebuyers with additional options and helping support buyer activity as mortgage rates fluctuate.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 6.04%, up from the previous week when it averaged 5.96%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.85%.

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  • Mortgages average 6.49%

    Mortgages average 6.49%

    According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released on July 9, 2026, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.49%. This report demonstrates that the FRM has remained relatively unchanged.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Mortgage rates have not changed much recently, but economic growth and housing affordability continue to improve for homebuyers as they shop for homes in today’s market.”

    The most recently measured FRM is up from last week, when it averaged 6.43%. In July 2025, around this same time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72%. The 15-year FRM averaged 5.82%, up from the previous week when it averaged 5.79%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.86%.

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  • Single-story home starts increase in 2025

    Single-story home starts increase in 2025

    According to the recent release of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction, while the gap between one-story and two-or-more-story shares has been relatively stable since 2021, 2025 saw a slight decrease in two-or-more-story starts. Two-or-more story starts dropped in 2025 to 51.4% from 52.2% in 2024.

    Meanwhile, the share of new homes with one story rose from 47.5% to 48.6%. Despite the decline, more than half of new homes built nationally in 2025 were two or more stories, though this share varied significantly across the nation.

    New homes started in the Midwest and the South generally favored single-story homes, while the Northeast and the West had higher shares of two or more stories.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.43%

    Mortgage rates average 6.43%

    Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey on July 2, 2026, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.43%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage eased slightly this week, averaging 6.43%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With rates at a seven-week low and purchase demand continuing to edge higher, it’s an encouraging sign as prospective homebuyers respond to modest improvements in affordability.”

    As of July 2, 2026, the FRM decreased from the week before, when it averaged 6.49%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.67%. Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.79%, down from when it averaged 5.84%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.80%.

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  • Residential construction spending up 1.8% year-over-year

    Residential construction spending up 1.8% year-over-year

    According to the recently released May analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, private residential construction spending continued its steady upward trend. Compared to a year ago, spending is up 1.8% and surpassed the previous month by 0.4.

    This is the third consecutive month of gains, following the slight dip in activity in February. The current pace is a moderate sign of a stabilizing market, despite consumer economic uncertainty and rise in material costs.

    Looking forward, the effects of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is expected to streamline review for builders and diminish some of the costly boundaries for builders.

    “Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in June 2023, with the index largely plateauing since late 2024,” said Catherine Koh an economist at the National Association of Homebuilders. “In contrast, improvement spending has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2025, supported in part by the aging housing stock and sustained demand for renovation.

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  • Builders Can Successfully Transition Into Bathroom Remodeling

    Builders Can Successfully Transition Into Bathroom Remodeling

    Thinking about expanding your business into bathroom and shower remodeling? The biggest opportunities for builders exist within the wet space, especially remodels. Join Bestbath for a roundtable discussion on expanding into the wet space. Industry professionals will share perspectives on current market trends, business opportunities, operational considerations, and lessons learned from adding bathroom and shower projects to their offerings.

    Attendees will gain practical insights into what it takes to enter the category, common challenges to expect, and how other contractors have successfully incorporated wet space projects into their businesses.

    Learning Objectives:

    • What’s driving demand for bathroom remodeling projects
    • Where the biggest growth opportunities exist in the wet space
    • What it takes to add bath and shower services to an existing business
    • How to position and sell bathroom remodeling projects effectively
    • Lessons learned from contractors who have successfully expanded their offerings
    • Practical next steps for growing their business through wet space projects

    Purpose: This webinar is designed to help contractors, remodelers, builders, and home improvement professionals evaluate the opportunity of expanding into bathroom and shower remodeling. Through a roundtable discussion with industry professionals, attendees will gain insight into market demand, growth opportunities, operational considerations, and real-world lessons learned from businesses that have successfully added wet space projects to their offerings. The goal is to provide practical guidance to help attendees determine whether expanding into the wet space is the right fit for their business.

    Join speakers Michael Lunt, Dealer Sales Manager at Bestbath and Blake Watson, Owner at Age-Proof Homes, for this discussion.

    Register for the webinar now! 

    Learn more about Bestbath

  • Home Prices Hit 2026 High

    Home Prices Hit 2026 High

    According to the Redfin Home Price Index, U.S. home prices continue to grow, up 0.3% month over month in May. This may appear to be a slight uptick from April’s 0.2% increase, but it is the largest growth rate of 2026.

    Year-over-year, the average for housing growth sits at 2.5%, continuing the rise of the last six months.

    The largest regional increases are reported in the Midwest, with both Cleveland (2.5%) and Columbus, Ohio (1.3%) in the top five cities overall. Posting the most declines are metros in the West, with  Riverside, Calif. (-1.9%), San Jose, Calif. (-1.7%) and San Francisco (-1.3%) dropping month to month.

    “Buyers got a boost from lower mortgage rates in the spring, and that momentum is showing up in prices,” said Sheharyar Bokhari, a senior economist at Redfin. “And even though there are many more home sellers than buyers in the market, the most desirable homes are still attracting multiple offers, driving up prices.”

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.41% in May

    Mortgage rates average 6.41% in May

    According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points (bps) over April. Additionally, the average 15-year rate averaged 5.76% in May, up 7 bps from April and up 33 basis points since the end of February.

    The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.47% last month, 16 bps higher than in April. Stronger-than-expected inflation pushed yields upward, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.6% during the month. Rising energy prices kept inflation high, as fuel oil prices increased 5.8% and gasoline prices rose 5.4%.

    Persistently high inflation has also impacted household budgets, with the personal saving rate falling to 2.6% in April.

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  • Builder confidence increases in May

    Builder confidence increases in May

    The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for May 2026. The HMI is based on a monthly survey of single-family builders who are asked to rate three specific conditions of the housing market: present sales of new single-family homes, expected sales of single-family homes for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers of new single-family homes. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased three points to 37 in May.

    The survey revealed that 32% of builders cut prices in May, down from 36% in April. However, the use of sale incentives was up 61% in May, a slight increase from 60% in April.

    Key factors that can impact the HMI include interest rates, employment rates, material costs and inflationary pressures.

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  • Private residential construction spending increases in April

    Private residential construction spending increases in April

    Private residential construction spending was up 0.8% in April 2026, following the monthly gain of 0.6% in March. Gains in single-family and home improvement spending largely drove this increase. Overall, total private residential construction spending was 1.7% higher than a year ago.

    According to the latest construction spending data from the U.S. Census, single-family construction spending increased 1.4% in April, consistent with the steady builder confidence reflected in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

    Improvement spending also increased in April, rising 0.4% for the month and remaining a bright spot year over year, with spending up 7.5% from April 2025.

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  • Construction employment increases in 32 states

    Construction employment increases in 32 states

    Construction employment rose in 32 states from April 2025 to April 2026, according to an analysis of new federal data released by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC)on May 22, 2026. Texas added the most construction jobs, adding approximately 18,700 jobs, followed by North Carolina, Ohio, Louisiana, Illinois and Missouri. Louisiana had the largest percentage gain in the span of 12 months.

    “It’s encouraging to see construction employment increasing in many parts of the country,” said Ken Simonson, the AGC’s chief economist.

    In April 2026, Florida added the most construction jobs with 6,000, followed by Texas with 3,500, Massachusetts with 3,100, North Carolina with 2,700 and New Mexico with 2,600.

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  • March sees lowest saving rates since June 2022

    March sees lowest saving rates since June 2022

    According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 2026 saw the lowest personal saving rates since June 2022. On a year-over-year basis, personal income was 2.5% higher in March than in April 2025. As consumer spending outpaced income growth, the personal saving rate fell to 2.6%. This data point implies households are drawing more heavily on savings to support spending.

    Personal income was essentially unchanged in April 2026, following a 0.5% gain in March. Personal consumption expenditure rose 0.5% in April, following a 1% increase in March. Real spending, which was adjusted to remove inflation, increased 0.1% in April, with expenditure goods declining 0.2% and spending on services up 0.2%.

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  • Construction sees life in custom homebuilding

    Construction sees life in custom homebuilding

    The custom home market is not as heavily impacted by the interest rate cycle in comparison to other forms of homebuilding, making it a relative bright spot in residential construction. While overall single-family construction has been down 5% for the first four months of 2026, custom homebuilding is providing relief in the homebuilding.

    According to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) analysis of Census data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey, there were 36,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of 2026. This is up 3% relative to the first quarter of 2025.

    Currently, the market share of custom builds, based on a one-year moving average, is 20% of total single-family starts.

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