Market Research

Analysis and trends impacting construction, housing and development markets.

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  • Prime land prices rise, outlying land readjusts

    Prime land prices rise, outlying land readjusts

    Well-located land is in high demand, as seen in research from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC). The company’s 2Q26 Residential Land Survey of the top land brokers nationwide reported the following: Demand remains lower than it was a few years ago. In 2Q24, 76% of brokers rated land demand as Hot or On Fire, but by 2Q26, that number decreased to 33%. However, finished lot prices continue to rise in high-quality A-B locations, up +5% year over year (YOY), while prices fell -2% YOY in farther-out C-D locations.

    Higher-quality land is in higher demand, but there are still factors builders and developers should keep an eye on. Developers are encouraged to look out for easing growth. Meanwhile, builders may be able to push for better terms in negotiations with developers in some markets, particularly in oversupplied C-D areas.

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  • Mortgage rates hold steady

    Mortgage rates hold steady

    Results from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey revealed that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.66% on Aug. 27, 2026. This is the second time in August that mortgage rates have averaged 6.66%. Mortgage rates remain relatively unchanged throughout the month, holding steady.

    “Mortgage rates changed little this week, averaging 6.66%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The economy remains resilient, demonstrated by steady consumer spending and rising household incomes. More homes coming on the market and slower price growth in many areas are giving buyers better options and helping create a more balanced housing market.”

    The current FRM is slightly up from last week’s average of 6.65%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.56%. The 15-year FRM averaged 5.98%, up from last week when it averaged 5.95%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.69%.

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  • Pace of new home sales softens

    Pace of new home sales softens

    According to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, newly built single-family home sales declined 10.5% in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 607,000, following an upward estimate of new home sales in June. New home sales were 6.3% lower than a year earlier, according to July data.

    A survey from the National Association of Home Builders shows that a majority of builders continue to offer incentives, including mortgage rate buy-downs, to accelerate the pace of new home sales. There is still hope in the industry as builders continue to outperform the broader market.

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  • ‘Housing market is no longer moving in one direction’ says Cotality Chief Economist

    ‘Housing market is no longer moving in one direction’ says Cotality Chief Economist

    On Aug. 10, 2026, Cotality released its August 2026 U.S. home insights price report. According to the report, the Midwest and Northeast markets are still seeing firm price growth. Illinois is at a 6.4% year-over-year increase (YoY), followed by Connecticut at 6%, Nebraska at 5.8% and Indiana, also at 5.8%. National home price growth remains modest but shows signs of acceleration, edging up 0.3% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year in June 2026.

    “As long as mortgage rates stay consistently high, factors such as local job and income growth, migration patterns and specific industrial investments will influence the real estate market,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality.

    Cotality also found that major industrial and tech investments are driving sharp local growth spikes-highlighted by Abilene, Texas, at +9.5% YoY, where AI data centers insulated the metro from broader statewide housing declines.

    “Cities like Abilene demonstrate that even in a cooling state like Texas, targeted capital projects can generate localized demand shocks that completely contradict regional trends,” said Hepp.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.69%

    Mortgage rates average 6.69%

    As of Aug. 6, 2026, mortgage rates averaged 6.69%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Survey (PMS). These results are up from last week’s average of 6.66%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.63%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While mortgage rates continue to influence affordability, the housing market is showing signs of adjustment, with listing prices modestly below year-ago levels and for-sale inventory improving from the limited supply seen in recent years.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 6.01%, down from the previous week’s 6.04%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.75%.

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  • Residential construction spending averages $877.1 billion in June

    Residential construction spending averages $877.1 billion in June

    On Aug. 3, 2026, the United States Census Bureau released its Monthly Construction Spending in June 2026 report. According to the report, residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $877.1 billion in June, 0.3% (±1.3%)* below the revised May estimate of $879.9 billion.

    Total construction spending during June 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,166.5 billion, 0.1% (±0.8%)* below the revised May estimate of $2,168.5 billion. The June figure is 3.2% below the June 2025 estimate of $2,237.7 billion. During the first six months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,046.9 billion, 3.5% below the $1,084.5 billion for the same period in 2025.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.66%

    Mortgage rates average 6.66%

    On July 30, 2026, Freddie Mac released the latest results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.66%. This was up from the week prior’s average of 6.58%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The housing market continues to benefit from more available inventory, providing prospective homebuyers with additional options and helping support buyer activity as mortgage rates fluctuate.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 6.04%, up from the previous week when it averaged 5.96%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.85%.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.58%

    Mortgage rates average 6.58%

    On July 23, 2026, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, revealing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.58%, up from the week before when it averaged 6.55%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.74%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.58% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As market conditions continue to evolve, borrowers should remember that shopping around for a mortgage rate can make a meaningful difference, potentially saving them thousands over the loan’s lifetime.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 5.96%, up from the week before when it averaged 5.93%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.87%.

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  • Starter home prices outpace buyer income

    Starter home prices outpace buyer income

    The average age of a homeowner is 44, despite Gen Z homeownership rising in 2025. However, for buyers its not finding a home that is a challenge.

    According to recent research from Realtor, there are 300,000 fewer starter homes than before the pandemic. To address this, builders in 2026 are building on smaller lots at a quicker pace than the year before.

    The reality is the cost to purchase a starter home has dramatically increased. The average price of a starter home has risen from $256,000 in 2019 to $344,000 today. Consumer buying power and salaries have not followed suit. The average income needed to purchase is $78,000, up from $43,000 in 2019, while over the same period median household income rose only 28.3% at an estimated $69,000 to $88,100.

    “The barrier for today’s starter home buyer isn’t finding a home, it’s qualifying for one,” said Senior Economist “With mortgage rates still in the mid-6% range and the income needed to purchase a typical starter home up more than 80% since 2019, many would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines even as listings accumulate.

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  • Starter home prices outpace buyer income

    Starter home prices outpace buyer income

    The average age of a homeowner is 44, despite Gen Z homeownership rising in 2025. However, for buyers its not finding a home that is a challenge.

    According to recent research from Realtor, there are 300,000 fewer starter homes than before the pandemic. To address this, builders in 2026 are building on smaller lots at a quicker pace than the year before.

    The reality is the cost to purchase a starter home has dramatically increased. The average price of a starter home has risen from $256,000 in 2019 to $344,000 today. Consumer buying power and salaries have not followed suit. The average income needed to purchase is $78,000, up from $43,000 in 2019, while over the same period median household income rose only 28.3% at an estimated $69,000 to $88,100.

    “The barrier for today’s starter home buyer isn’t finding a home, it’s qualifying for one,” said Senior Economist “With mortgage rates still in the mid-6% range and the income needed to purchase a typical starter home up more than 80% since 2019, many would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines even as listings accumulate.

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  • June housing starts and completions exceed estimates

    June housing starts and completions exceed estimates

    On July 17, 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released their new residential construction report for June 2026.

    According to the report, privately-owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,392,000, 3.3% above the revised May estimate of 1,347,000 and 1.5 percent% above the June 2025 rate of 1,372,000.

    Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000, 19% above the revised May estimate of 1,199,000 and 3.5% above the June 2025 rate of 1,379,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 895,000, a small 0.2% decline from the revised May figure of 897,000.

    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,367,000, only 3% below the revised May rate of 1,410,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 871,000, 2.4% below the revised May figure of 892,000.

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  • Mortgages average 6.49%

    Mortgages average 6.49%

    According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released on July 9, 2026, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.49%. This report demonstrates that the FRM has remained relatively unchanged.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Mortgage rates have not changed much recently, but economic growth and housing affordability continue to improve for homebuyers as they shop for homes in today’s market.”

    The most recently measured FRM is up from last week, when it averaged 6.43%. In July 2025, around this same time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72%. The 15-year FRM averaged 5.82%, up from the previous week when it averaged 5.79%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.86%.

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  • Single-story home starts increase in 2025

    Single-story home starts increase in 2025

    According to the recent release of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction, while the gap between one-story and two-or-more-story shares has been relatively stable since 2021, 2025 saw a slight decrease in two-or-more-story starts. Two-or-more story starts dropped in 2025 to 51.4% from 52.2% in 2024.

    Meanwhile, the share of new homes with one story rose from 47.5% to 48.6%. Despite the decline, more than half of new homes built nationally in 2025 were two or more stories, though this share varied significantly across the nation.

    New homes started in the Midwest and the South generally favored single-story homes, while the Northeast and the West had higher shares of two or more stories.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.43%

    Mortgage rates average 6.43%

    Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey on July 2, 2026, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.43%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage eased slightly this week, averaging 6.43%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With rates at a seven-week low and purchase demand continuing to edge higher, it’s an encouraging sign as prospective homebuyers respond to modest improvements in affordability.”

    As of July 2, 2026, the FRM decreased from the week before, when it averaged 6.49%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.67%. Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.79%, down from when it averaged 5.84%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.80%.

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  • Residential construction spending up 1.8% year-over-year

    Residential construction spending up 1.8% year-over-year

    According to the recently released May analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau, private residential construction spending continued its steady upward trend. Compared to a year ago, spending is up 1.8% and surpassed the previous month by 0.4.

    This is the third consecutive month of gains, following the slight dip in activity in February. The current pace is a moderate sign of a stabilizing market, despite consumer economic uncertainty and rise in material costs.

    Looking forward, the effects of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is expected to streamline review for builders and diminish some of the costly boundaries for builders.

    “Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in June 2023, with the index largely plateauing since late 2024,” said Catherine Koh an economist at the National Association of Homebuilders. “In contrast, improvement spending has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2025, supported in part by the aging housing stock and sustained demand for renovation.

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  • NAHB study analyzes homebuilding regulatory costs

    NAHB study analyzes homebuilding regulatory costs

    A new study from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) analyzed homebuilding regulatory costs, comparing results from the 2026 survey to a previous one conducted in 2021. The 2026 survey revealed that, on average, regulations imposed by the government at all levels account for $131,734, or 26.4%, of the final price of a new single-family home built for sale. Of this amount, $46,795 is due to a higher price for the finished lot, a direct result of regulations imposed during the lot’s development. The remaining $84,939 is the result of regulatory costs imposed on the builder during construction, after the builder purchases the finished lot.

    According to the study, regulatory costs are one of several factors, including record increases of tariff rates on building materials, ongoing skilled labor shortage, a decrease in available lots and tighter lending conditions, currently limiting the supply of housing, particularly housing for the entry-level market.

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  • Mortgage rates decrease to 6.48%

    Mortgage rates decrease to 6.48%

    On June 4, 2026, Freddie Mac announced that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.48%, according to its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The FRM decreased from the week before, when it averaged 6.53%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.85%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 6.48% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With mortgage rates in the mid-6% range and income growth outpacing home price growth, housing affordability is marginally improving.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 5.79%, down from the week prior when it averaged 5.87%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.99%.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.41% in May

    Mortgage rates average 6.41% in May

    According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points (bps) over April. Additionally, the average 15-year rate averaged 5.76% in May, up 7 bps from April and up 33 basis points since the end of February.

    The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, averaged 4.47% last month, 16 bps higher than in April. Stronger-than-expected inflation pushed yields upward, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.6% during the month. Rising energy prices kept inflation high, as fuel oil prices increased 5.8% and gasoline prices rose 5.4%.

    Persistently high inflation has also impacted household budgets, with the personal saving rate falling to 2.6% in April.

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  • Builder confidence increases in May

    Builder confidence increases in May

    The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for May 2026. The HMI is based on a monthly survey of single-family builders who are asked to rate three specific conditions of the housing market: present sales of new single-family homes, expected sales of single-family homes for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers of new single-family homes. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased three points to 37 in May.

    The survey revealed that 32% of builders cut prices in May, down from 36% in April. However, the use of sale incentives was up 61% in May, a slight increase from 60% in April.

    Key factors that can impact the HMI include interest rates, employment rates, material costs and inflationary pressures.

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  • Private residential construction spending increases in April

    Private residential construction spending increases in April

    Private residential construction spending was up 0.8% in April 2026, following the monthly gain of 0.6% in March. Gains in single-family and home improvement spending largely drove this increase. Overall, total private residential construction spending was 1.7% higher than a year ago.

    According to the latest construction spending data from the U.S. Census, single-family construction spending increased 1.4% in April, consistent with the steady builder confidence reflected in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

    Improvement spending also increased in April, rising 0.4% for the month and remaining a bright spot year over year, with spending up 7.5% from April 2025.

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  • Construction employment increases in 32 states

    Construction employment increases in 32 states

    Construction employment rose in 32 states from April 2025 to April 2026, according to an analysis of new federal data released by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC)on May 22, 2026. Texas added the most construction jobs, adding approximately 18,700 jobs, followed by North Carolina, Ohio, Louisiana, Illinois and Missouri. Louisiana had the largest percentage gain in the span of 12 months.

    “It’s encouraging to see construction employment increasing in many parts of the country,” said Ken Simonson, the AGC’s chief economist.

    In April 2026, Florida added the most construction jobs with 6,000, followed by Texas with 3,500, Massachusetts with 3,100, North Carolina with 2,700 and New Mexico with 2,600.

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  • HUD releases report on best homebuilding practices

    HUD releases report on best homebuilding practices

    The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released the State and Local Best Practices for Home Construction Report, a series of regulatory actions for state and local governments to increase efficiency and ease regulatory barriers to housing construction and affordability. The report provides a clear starting point for all state and local governments to begin or continue an active effort to remove unnecessary burdens to home construction. Best practices are sorted into three categories: Cut Home Construction Costs, Unlock Land for New Housing Supply and Accelerate Construction Timelines.

    “HUD is encouraging our state and local partners to take inventory of their regulations and policies and make changes that will lower the cost to build and enable more efficient housing supply growth,” said HUD Secretary Scott Turner. “These best practices are an initial list of recommendations to facilitate growth while respecting communities’ unique needs. Adding efficiency to local building processes will result in more affordable homeownership opportunities for all Americans.”

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  • Builder sentiment reports steady increase in May

    Builder sentiment reports steady increase in May

    The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) of Builder sentiment reported a modest gain in May, bouncing back after April’s decrease. The HMI posted a 37 for newly built single-family homes.

    NAHB cites the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act could settle builders’ concerns while increasing housing supply.

    “The housing market remains soft as higher mortgage rates, rising gas prices and economic uncertainty related to the war in Iran continue to dampen buyer demand,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. “However, efforts in the House to modify the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act could increase the nation’s housing supply and help ease builder concerns.”

    Regionally, the Builder sentiment in Midwest registered a slight, one-point gain to 43 and the Northeast followed with a one point increase to 42. The South reported no change at 35, while the West dipped one point to 28.

    “Recent increases for long-term interest rates will continue to hold back home buyer demand,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Although some regional markets, including parts of the Midwest, are showing relative strength, the housing market continues to face significant affordability challenges.”

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  • Q1 2026 Homebuilding Permit Overview

    Q1 2026 Homebuilding Permit Overview

    Over the first three months of 2026, there were 214,655 permits issued nationwide to construct new single-family homes. This was down 7.6% from the first quarter of 2025. However, multifamily permits grew 7.1% to 121,404 total units over the first quarter of the year.

    At a state level, 12 states recorded year-over-year increases in single-family permits in March, with gains ranging from 18.6% in Alabama to 0.2% in Minnesota. Ten states issued the highest number of single-family permits, which accounted for 63.7% of all single-family permits issued nationwide. Texas led the country with 35,231 single-family home permits issued at the end of Q1 2026.

    Elevated financing costs, ongoing affordability challenges and softer builder sentiment continued to weigh on single-family construction activity, while multifamily permitting remained supported by demand for rental housing.

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  • Incentives are driving potential buyers

    Incentives are driving potential buyers

    Two of the country’s largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton and PulteGroup are investing in incentives for buyers. Mortgage rate buydowns, covering closing costs and overall price cuts can help close the sale for potential buyers. Both builders saw a jump in orders in Q1 of 2026, 11% for D.R. Horton and 3% for PulteGroup.

    However getting these buyers to the door are costing the builders in earnings results. Net income attributable to D.R. Horton for its second fiscal quarter decreased 20%. While PulteGroup reported its home sale gross margin was 24.4%, compared with prior year gross margin of 27.5%. However, neither are planning on cutting these incentives soon.

    “New-home demand remains impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, said D.R. Horton CEO Paul Romanowski. “Our sales incentives increased during the second quarter, and we expect incentives to remain elevated for the rest of the year, with the level dependent on demand, mortgage interest rates, and other market conditions.”

    “Our ability to offer low fixed-rate mortgages and other incentives is certainly helping solve the affordability riddle for some,” said PulteGroup CEO Ryan Marshall. “But this comes at a price, as incentives in the quarter reached 10.9% of gross sales price.”

    The use of these incentives may draw some short term headwinds, but they keep builder momentum in the market.

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  • Pending home sales pick up in March

    Pending home sales pick up in March

    Pending home sales picked up 1.5% in March 2026 despite mortgage rates varying throughout the month, suggesting that rising borrowing costs may have pushed homebuyers to act while the housing market conditions showed signs of improvement. While contract signings were down 1.1% year-over-year, the monthly gain points to underlying demand going into the spring buying season. Rates rose from around 6.11% in mid-March to 6.38% by month’s end.

    The Realtor.com® March 2026 Housing Trends Report showed pending listings increased 3.9% year-over-year, the third consecutive month of annual gains, while new listings surged 21.2% from February to 439,000, exceeding the typical seasonal jump and giving buyers the most fresh inventory to browse in several years.

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  • Single-family housing starts surge in March

    Single-family housing starts surge in March

    U.S. single-family homebuilding increased to a 13-month high in March. According to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, single-family housing starts, which account for ​the bulk of homebuilding, surged 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of ‌1.032 million units, the highest level since February 2025.

    Single-family housing starts increased to a pace of 941,000 units in February from 898,000 units in January. They rose 8.9% year-on-year in March. Overall housing starts vaulted 10.8% to a pace of 1.502 million units and increased 10.8% year-on-year in March.

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